A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
